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    Home > Resource hub > Modelling the effects of quitting smoking on COPD

Modelling the effects of quitting smoking on COPD

This project was the first in Australia to develop a dynamic simulation model to forecast the population health implications of smoking behaviour on COPD over the next 50 years. It found longer and more frequent quit attempts will lead to less COPD among smokers in future. Download the Findings Brief to learn the relevance of this project for policy and practice.
  • Modelling the effects of quitting smoking on COPD

    Resource category:

    Findings Brief Findings Brief

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Key messages

  • Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a significant impact on mortality, the health system and quality of life, and is estimated to cost Australia more than $7.7 billion per year.
  • The probability of developing COPD is directly linked to amount of tobacco smoked over a lifetime.
  • Smoking rates have declined in Australia in recent years, but we do not know how this will impact the COPD burden in future.
  • Dynamic simulation modelling is a useful ‘what-if’ tool that enables testing of the likely impact of a range of possible scenarios over time.
  • This project was the first in Australia to develop a dynamic simulation model to forecast the population health implications of smoking behaviour on COPD over the next 50 years.
  • We found that longer and more frequent quit attempts will lead to less COPD among smokers in future. Any intervention that supports this would have significant benefits, and much greater than has been shown in the literature previously.
  • These findings suggest that identifying smokers who are likely to quit for longer and providing them with targeted support has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of COPD in NSW.

Associated content

  • Boosting quit attempts can significantly reduce COPD burden in NSW

    News Category: Prevention Centre News
    Date 13 Jun 2018
    Broccoli arranged to look like human lungs, but one side is turning into used cigarette butts
Details

DATE 24 Apr 2018

TYPE Findings Brief

Prevention experts

  • Dr Ante Prodan

    The Sax Institute
    Headshot of Ante Prodan

Topics

  • Alcohol, tobacco and other drugs ,
  • Overweight and obesity ,

Prevention methodologies

  • New methods and tools ,
  • Systems and complexity ,
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Acknowledgement of Country

The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre acknowledges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work.

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Funding Partners

The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre is funded by the NHMRC, Australian Government Department of Health, ACT Health, Cancer Council Australia, NSW Ministry of Health, Wellbeing SA, Tasmanian Department of Health, and VicHealth. The Australian Government has also contributed funding through the Medical Research Future Fund. The Prevention Centre is administered by the Sax Institute.

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