Advanced modelling shows a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage tax is a best buy for reducing child obesity in Australia

The model incorporates expert knowledge and best evidence. It can be used to examine how changes to the underlying determinants, such as dietary behaviours and physical activity, influence the prevalence of overweight and obesity. It can also explore the likely impacts of policies and programs and best buys.

Key messages

• Evidence shows addressing obesity in early childhood protects people from gaining weight as adults and leads to lifelong health benefits.
• We developed the Australian Child and Adolescent Obesity Simulation model, which uses data and input from a multidisciplinary group of experts to explore likely impacts of five interventions and identify ‘best buys’.
• The model showed implementing a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax is a best buy for reducing child obesity in Australia as it is effective and low‑cost.
• Implementing an SSB tax was projected to deliver the highest and most sustained reduction in the prevalence of obesity.
• An SSB tax maintained a significant benefit into adulthood and reached the entire population, unlike the other settings-based interventions we looked at.
• Combining the sugar-sweetened beverage tax with interventions across the life course was the most effective way of reducing child and adolescent obesity.
• Overseas evidence demonstrates an SSB tax would lead to population-level reductions in consumption of SSBs, encourage manufacturers to reformulate products to reduce sugar content, and generate funds to support further actions to reduce overweight and obesity.