Compelling Case for Prevention: findings and insights from the GoHealth model
Dynamic simulation models are computer models that are simplified representations of the real world. The Prevention Centre is a pioneer of dynamic simulation modelling to provide synthesised advice for policy on chronic disease prevention.
We developed a national dynamic simulation model of chronic disease prevention, the GoHealth model, based on trends in the prevalence of nine modifiable risk factors. The model projects the health burden and economic costs of preventable disease in Australia.
To the best of our knowledge, the GoHealth model is the first dynamic simulation model in the world that captures the dynamic relationships between risk factors for chronic disease in a comprehensive way and links these to burden of disease and associated economic costs.
Lack of consistent and reliable Australian data on risk factor prevalence meant we could not develop the model into a robust decision support tool for policy. However, the model demonstrates underlying behaviour in the system, enabling us to offer policy-relevant recommendations and make a compelling case for action on chronic disease prevention.
This project aimed to establish a compelling argument for investment in prevention and determine how best to target preventive strategies for maximum impact.
Associated content
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Accelerating risk factor reductions in a systems model of chronic disease burden
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Compelling Case for Prevention: preview of the GoHealth model
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More investment in robust data is needed to support our case for chronic disease prevention
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How is health economics used in chronic disease prevention?
Resource category: FactsheetsDate